H₂ Trade Routes Creating 20-40% Returns While Enabling Energy Independence
ACTIVITY 1: Your Energy Import Dependence (10 min)
If You’re in Europe/Japan/Korea:
Calculate your reliance on energy imports:
Current Reality (2025):
- Europe: 60% energy imported (was 40% Russian gas pre-2022)
- Japan: 90% energy imported (oil, gas, coal)
- Korea: 85% energy imported
- Cost: €300-500B/year (Europe), $150B/year (Japan)
Your household share:
- Energy cost: €2,000-4,000/year
- Import portion: 60-90% = €1,200-3,600/year leaves your economy
Green H₂ Import Future (2050):
- Source: Middle East (solar), Australia (solar/wind), Chile (wind)
- Cost: $2-3/kg delivered (vs $4-6/kg domestic production)
- Your benefit: 30-50% energy cost reduction + allied suppliers
Investment Scoring:
- Understanding of energy geopolitics: ___/10
- Knowledge of H₂ shipping: ___/10
- Risk tolerance (infrastructure): ___/10
- Capital: €_____ (recommend €20K-100K)
- Time horizon: ___/10 Total: ___/50
Market: 50-80 Mt/year exports (2050), $280B/year Returns: Export developers 20-40%/year
Value Proposition: H₂ Replaces Oil/Gas Trade
Major Export Routes (2050):
1. Middle East → Europe ($100B/year):
- Saudi (Neom): 4 Mt/year (operational 2026!)
- UAE (Masdar): 3 Mt/year
- Oman: 2 Mt/year
- Shipping: Ammonia carriers to Rotterdam
2. Australia → Japan/Korea ($80B/year):
- Western Australia: 5+ Mt/year
- Queensland: Solar H₂ hubs
- Customers: Japan (3 Mt), Korea (2 Mt)
3. North Africa → Europe ($60B/year):
- Morocco: Solar → H₂ → Spain (pipeline)
- Algeria: Repurpose gas pipelines
4. Chile → Asia ($40B/year):
- Patagonia wind (60% capacity factor!)
- HIF, others: Multi-GW projects
Why Export Hydrogen:
- Saudi green H₂: $1.5-2/kg (excellent solar)
- German green H₂: $2.5-3.5/kg (worse solar)
- Arbitrage: Ship for $0.50-1/kg profit
ACTIVITY 2: Investment Options
Air Products (APD) – USA:
- Neom green H₂: $8.5B investment (world’s largest!)
- 4 Mt/year production → Export to Europe
- Partners: ACWA Power, Neom
- €10,000 → €28,394-44,865 (11-16%/year)
ACWA Power (Saudi, IPO 2022):
- Neom partner, Saudi energy leader
- Green H₂: Multiple projects
- €10,000 → €52,338-107,946 (18-28%/year)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012.T) – Japan:
- Building liquid H₂ carriers (ships)
- Technology: -253°C shipping
- €10,000 → €31,058-57,275 (12-19%/year)
Uniper (UN01.DE) – Germany:
- Import terminals + storage
- Receiving: Middle East H₂
- €10,000 → €31,058-61,917 (12-20%/year)
JERA (Japan):
- Utility, H₂ import strategy
- Contracts: Australian H₂
- €10,000 → €33,946-61,917 (13-20%/year)
Snam (SRG.MI) – Italy:
- Gas pipeline operator, converting to H₂
- €10,000 → €28,394-48,068 (11-17%/year)
Recommended Portfolio (€50,000):
- 30% Export developers (APD, ACWA): €15,000 (14-22%)
- 25% Shipping/logistics (Kawasaki): €12,500 (12-20%)
- 25% Import infrastructure (Uniper, JERA, Snam): €12,500 (12-19%)
- 20% Diversified H₂ ETF: €10,000 (15-25%)
Blended: 13-21%/year 10-year: €169,859-372,861
Crisis: Energy Dependence = Geopolitical Vulnerability
Europe’s Wake-Up Call:
- Pre-2022: 40% Russian gas
- 2022 invasion: Supply cut = energy crisis
- Prices: 10x increase (€0.03 → €0.30/kWh)
- Cost: €500B+ to European economy
Solution: Allied H₂ Imports
- Source: Saudi, Australia, Morocco (allies)
- Diversification: Multiple suppliers
- Security: Energy independence from adversaries
Japan/Korea Similar:
- 90% energy imported
- Currently: Oil (Middle East), LNG (diverse)
- Future: Green H₂ (Australia, Chile) = stability
ACTIVITY 3: 30-Day Plan
Week 1: Research Days 1-7: Understand H₂ shipping (ammonia carriers, liquid H₂), export routes, geopolitics
Week 2: Strategy Days 8-14: Allocate capital (10-20% portfolio), select export vs import vs shipping exposure
Week 3: Execute Days 15-21: Purchase positions across value chain, track projects
Week 4: Monitor Days 22-30: Set alerts for project announcements, policy support, trade agreements
ACTIVITY 4: Portfolio Strategy
Conservative (€100,000):
- 50% Infrastructure (Uniper, JERA, Snam): €50,000 (11-19%)
- 30% Established export (Air Products): €30,000 (11-16%)
- 20% Diversified H₂: €20,000 (15-25%) Expected: 12-19%/year → €310,585-573,518
Moderate (€100,000):
- 30% Export developers (APD, ACWA): €30,000 (14-22%)
- 25% Shipping (Kawasaki, others): €25,000 (12-20%)
- 25% Import infra: €25,000 (12-19%)
- 20% H₂ ETF: €20,000 (15-25%) Expected: 13-21%/year → €339,457-661,605
Aggressive (€100,000):
- 40% ACWA Power (high growth): €40,000 (18-35%)
- 30% Emerging export nations: €30,000 (20-40%)
- 20% Shipping tech: €20,000 (15-25%)
- 10% Infrastructure: €10,000 (12-19%) Expected: 17-30%/year → €482,253-1,379,932
ACTIVITY 5: Commitment
I, ________________, commit to H₂ energy export investing.
Phase 1 (Months 1-6): ☐ Allocate €_____ (___%) ☐ Holdings: _________________
Phase 2-3 (Years 1-10): ☐ Scale to €_____ ☐ Expected: €_____ → €_____
Returns target: 13-21%/year Signature: ________________ Date: _____
Bottom Line: H₂ Reshapes Energy Geopolitics
50-80 Mt/year exports by 2050 ($280B market). Routes: Middle East/Australia/Chile → Europe/Japan. Replaces oil/gas imports. Security: Allied suppliers (vs adversarial). Projects: Air Products Neom ($8.5B, 4 Mt/year), ACWA Power (partner), Kawasaki (carriers). Returns: 13-21% diversified. Where deserts power continents, where energy finds new allies.
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